From Climate to Conflict?
A Reading Guide for climate security.
Climate-Conflict Nexus
Scholars and researchers are divided on whether climate change causes conflict; however, most attribute climate change as an indirect threat multiplier.
Environmental and climate factors are rarely the sole cause of conflict. Direct links between climate change and conflict are beyond causal or linear links, and are often informed by other factors like poor governance, inequalities, vulnerabilities, conflict dynamics, and grievances.
These articles and publications highlight critical publications on the climate-conflict nexus.
To explore this issue further, check out: the Center for Climate and Security and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Our Recommendations!
Barnett, J., & Adger, W. N. (2007). Climate change, human security and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 639–655.
Busby, J. W. (2020). Beyond internal conflict: The emergent practice of climate security. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 186–194.
Buhaug, H., & Von Uexkull, N. (2021). Vicious circles: violence, vulnerability, and climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46(1), 545–568.
Mach, K. J., & Kraan, C. M. (2020). Science–policy dimensions of research on climate change and conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 58(1), 168–176.
Mach, K. J., Kraan, C. M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., Field, C. B., Hendrix, C. S., Maystadt, J., O’Loughlin, J., Roessler, P., Scheffran, J., Schultz, K. A., & Von Uexkull, N. (2019). Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict. Nature, 571(7764), 193–197.
Mohan, V. (2025). In search of consensus: Examining Global South perspectives on climate security in UNSC debates. Earth System Governance, 23, 100231.
Scheffran, J. (2019). Climate extremes and conflict dynamics. In Elsevier eBooks (pp. 293–315).
Schillinger, J., Özerol, G., Güven‐Griemert, Ş., & Heldeweg, M. (2020). Water in war: Understanding the impacts of armed conflict on water resources and their management. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, 7(6).
Selby, J., & Hoffmann, C. (2014). Rethinking climate change, conflict and security. Geopolitics, 19(4), 747–756.
Selby, J., Dahi, O. S., Fröhlich, C., & Hulme, M. (2017). Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited. Political Geography, 60, 232–244.
Climate, Peace and Security
Climate, Peace, and Security is an emerging policy field that examines how climate change affects stability and conflict. Addressing climate risks requires integrating climate adaptation with conflict prevention strategies, natural resource cooperation, and disaster risk reduction in fragile and conflict-affected areas. Based on this need, there is a need to include CPS in UN peacekeeping missions and environmental peace-building.
These articles highlight emerging themes and areas in this field. To explore this issue further, check out: adelphi, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and the UNDP Climate Security Mechanism.
Our Recommendations!
Black, R., Busby, J., Dabelko, G. D., De Coning, C., Maalim, H., McAllister, C., Ndiloseh, M., Smith, D., Cóbar, J. F. A., Barnhoorn, A., Bell, N., Bell-Moran, D., Broek, E., Eberlein, A., Eklöw, K., Faller, J., Gadnert, A., Hegazi, F., Kim, K., . . . Staudenmann, J. A. (2022c). Environment of Peace: Security in a new era of risk.
Döring, S., Kim, K., & Swain, A. (2024). Integrating socio-hydrology, and peace and conflict research. Journal of Hydrology, 633, 131000.
Gilmour, A. (2023). The burning question: Climate and Conflict – why Does it Matter?
Goldberg, M. (2023). Climate security: The Role of Knowledge and Scientific Information in the Making of a Nexus. Taylor & Francis.
Hardt, J. N., Harrington, C., Von Lucke, F., Estève, A., & Simpson, N. P. (2023). Climate security in the Anthropocene: Exploring the Approaches of United Nations Security Council Member-States. Springer Nature.
Krampe, F., O’Driscoll, D., Johnson, M., Simangan, D., Hegazi, F., & De Coning, C. (2024). Climate change and peacebuilding: sub-themes of an emerging research agenda. International Affairs, 100(3), 1111–1130.
Lahn, G., & Shapland, G. (2022). Cascading climate risks and options for resilience and adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa.
Nagarajan, C., Vivekananda, J., Pham-Duc, B., Sylvestre, F., Pohl, B., & Munoz, H. M. (2024). Peace in an extreme climate: How climate-related security risks affect prospects for stability in Lake Chad. PLOS Climate, 3(10), e0000314.
Peace, I. F. E. A. (2024). Ecological Threat Report 2024.
Prescott, J. M. (2018). Armed conflict, women and climate change. Routledge.
Pulhin, J. M., Inoue, M., & Shaw, R. (2021). Climate change, disaster risks, and human security: Asian Experience and Perspectives. Springer Nature.
Schwartzstein, P. (2024). The heat and the Fury: On the Frontlines of Climate Violence. Footnote Press.
Townend, R., Aylett, C., & Benzie, M. (2023). Cascading climate risks: strategic recommendations for European resilience.
Whitaker, E.; Vivekananda, J.; Gomolka, J. 2025: Navigating Peace in a Changing Climate: Climate and Security Trend Analysis. Berlin: adelphi global.
A New Era of Risks: Cascading and Compound Climate Risks
As climate change intensifies, our world is becoming more uncertain, ambiguous, dynamic, and complex. Climate hazards and risks are transmitting across borders and between regions, requiring new approaches to risk management and adaptation strategies. This new era of climate risks will change how nations will have to respond to disasters, food shocks, and supply-chain disruptions in a shifting security environment.
These articles present existing research on cascading and compound risks/events. To explore this issue further, check out: the EU CASCADES Project and the Adaptation Without Borders Initiative.
Our Recommendations!
AghaKouchak, A., Chiang, F., Huning, L. S., Love, C. A., Mallakpour, I., Mazdiyasni, O., Moftakhari, H., Papalexiou, S. M., Ragno, E., & Sadegh, M. (2020). Climate extremes and compound hazards in a warming world. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 48(1), 519–548.
Anisimov, A., Magnan, A. K. (eds.) (2023). The Global Transboundary Climate Risk Report. The Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations and Adaptation Without Borders.
IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Pescaroli, G., & Alexander, D. (2016). Critical infrastructure, panarchies and the vulnerability paths of cascading disasters. Natural Hazards, 82(1), 175–192.
Ringsmuth, A. K., Otto, I. M., Van Den Hurk, B., Lahn, G., Reyer, C. P., Carter, T. R., Magnuszewski, P., Monasterolo, I., Aerts, J. C., Benzie, M., Campiglio, E., Fronzek, S., Gaupp, F., Jarzabek, L., Klein, R. J., Knaepen, H., Mechler, R., Mysiak, J., Sillmann, J., . . . West, C. (2022). Lessons from COVID-19 for managing transboundary climate risks and building resilience. Climate Risk Management, 35, 100395.
Sara, T., Magnus, B., Katy, H., Łukasz, J., Piotr, M., R, C. T., & Noam, O. (2023). A conceptual framework for responding to cross-border climate change impacts. Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research).
NATO and EU Approaches to Climate Security Risks
The risk landscape in Europe is changing rapidly. Over the past few years, NATO and the EU have started to broaden their understanding of the climate-security nexus through new policies, awareness building, and strategies. Preparing for and responding to climate-related emergencies are essential for societal resilience and safety in NATO countries and the European Union.
These articles and publications highlight EU and NATO approaches to climate security risks and how they can work together to address shared security challenges. To explore this issue further, check out: European Union External Action Service and NATO Climate Change and Security Center of Excellence.
Our Recommendations!
Barnhoorn, A. (2023). Comparing responses to climate-related security risks among the EU, NATO and the OSCE.
Bremberg, N., Sonnsjö, H., & Mobjörk, M. (2018). The EU and climate-related security risks: a community of practice in the making? Journal of European Integration, 41(5), 623–639.
Bremberg, N., & Bunse, S. (2023). Climate, peace and security in a changing geopolitical context: next steps for the European Union.
Causevic, A. (2017). Facing an unpredictable threat: Is NATO ideally placed to manage climate change as a Non-Traditional Threat multiplier? Connections the Quarterly Journal, 16(2), 59–80.
European Commission (2024) JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL A new outlook on the climate and security nexus: Addressing the impact of climate change and environmental degradation on peace, security and defence. The European Commission.
European Commission (2025). JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS on the European Preparedness Union Strategy. The European Commission.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Corbane, C., Eklund, G., et al., (2024) Cross-border and emerging risks in Europe, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, JRC137818.
Farhan, A., Kossmann, S., & Van Rij, A. (2023). Preparing NATO for climate-related security challenges.
Goodman, S. (2024). Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security. Island Press.
Laybourn L, Abrams J F, Benton D, Brown K, Evans J, Elliott J, Swingedouw D, Lenton T M and Dyke J G (2024) The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security, IPPR.
Lippert, T. H. (2019). NATO, climate change, and international security: A Risk Governance Approach. Springer.
NATO CCASCOE (2024) Advancing Climate Security Together: We Need to Adapt. We Need to Mitigate Our Impact.
NATO (2024). NATO Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment. Third Edition.
What Now?
Check out our Climate Security Report project, and contact our Coordinators about how you can contribute!